IBSER on «Radio Era FM»
23 September 2009
IBSER on air
On September 23, 2009 "Rozvorot.UA" radio show was held on air on "Radio Era FM" with the participation of:
- Iryna Shcherbyna, Director General of the Institute for Budgetary and Socio-Economic Research, and
- Volodymyr Dubrovskyi, Senior economist of the Socio-Economic Research Center CASE Ukraine.
The discussion touched on the following issues:
• which interests will be protected by budget-2010;
• to which extent are realistic indicators of inflation, GDP growth and deficit as contemplated thereby;
• what should employees of the state funded organizations to expect;
• will their revenues increase subject to consumer price growth?
In the course of the talks Iryna Shcherbyna fixed on essential characteristics of Budget-2010 and noted that as a document budget-2010 is well-balanced and GDP markup at 3.7% is quite realistic. The problem is that such markup is determined on the basis of “crisis” indicator 2009, and in comparison with 2008 such “markup” represents a 10.8% reduction. However, even such conditioned markup may be achieved only subject to termination of economic recession and commencement of Ukrainian economy stabilization process through development of purely effective but not declarative strategy for economic development. Upon absence of a single stabilization document, joint actions of all branches of government, the single way to implement the budget will be use of inflation factors, when money supply expands nominally, GDP nominal value increases etc. In such a case we have one single question: to which extent such budget is consistent with economy needs?
In his turn Oleksandr Dubrovskyi brought into focus that budget 2010 is developed on the basis of wrong ideology it terms of crisis overcoming. He believes that under current conditions the principal accent of the state policy should shall be made on the private sector, liberation of Ukrainian business for which crisis is a normal condition, creative destruction upon which ones leave the market, others come. Expert expressed his troubles about such budget, which may lead the state to the crisis and possible need to perform reforms Ukraine faced 10 years ago.
Experts put also emphasis on the fact that the budget keeps to be disproportional in terms of expenditures (social expenditures increased by 11% and development expenditures are reduced almost twice in comparison with 2008) and contains overestimated figures in tax part of the draft law (clear need in tax reform).
At the end of the show guests had opportunity to answer questions of listeners.
In his turn Oleksandr Dubrovskyi brought into focus that budget 2010 is developed on the basis of wrong ideology it terms of crisis overcoming. He believes that under current conditions the principal accent of the state policy should shall be made on the private sector, liberation of Ukrainian business for which crisis is a normal condition, creative destruction upon which ones leave the market, others come. Expert expressed his troubles about such budget, which may lead the state to the crisis and possible need to perform reforms Ukraine faced 10 years ago.
Experts put also emphasis on the fact that the budget keeps to be disproportional in terms of expenditures (social expenditures increased by 11% and development expenditures are reduced almost twice in comparison with 2008) and contains overestimated figures in tax part of the draft law (clear need in tax reform).
At the end of the show guests had opportunity to answer questions of listeners.
Glyanec